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NBA Finals Game 4 Betting Preview

12/6/2014
The battle over how to build a championship basketball team continues this Thursday night in South Beach, Miami.

The San Antonio Spurs ([email protected]) are a great team, in the true sense of the word. They are the first franchise since the creation of the modern NBA to have no player average more than 30 minutes per game on court.

The Miami Heat, by contrast, feature a collection of superstars. The Big Three of James, Wade and Bosh all average more than 30 minutes per game

The Spurs remain the underdogs on Thursday, despite leading the NBA finals 2-1 and triumphing as 4.5 point underdogs in Game 3.

Bookmakers seem to be expecting a bounce-back performance from Lebron James and the Heat, who have an impressive 40-10 record at home this year.

However they have been priced accordingly throughout the season and have gone 24-25-1 against the spread (ATS).

The Miami Heat are the pick tonight as they have an 8-1 record ATS over the last three years when trailing in a series; this team responds well to adversity.

Lebron is well aware of the effect a "Three-peat" will have on his legacy.

The Spurs are also due a regression from their sizzling shooting pace from Game 3. In the first half they shot an NBA Finals record 75% from the field.

It will be impossible for them to replicate that pace against a re-energised Heat team smarting from a Game 3 humiliation in front of their own fans.

In fact the Heat are 7-1 ATS in their last eight following a double-digit loss at home.

It is also worth recalling last year's Finals Game 3, where they lost 113-77 to the same Spurs team but they rebounded to win Game 4.

That renewed vigour on defence also suggests that Under 197 (10/11) is the sharp bet.

The total was opened at 198, and has been bet down to the current number.

16 of the past 22 games in Miami between these two have gone under the closing total.

Miami (-5.5) 10/11 or 5/12 SU

San Antonio (+5.5) 10/11 or 2/1 SU

Total- Under 197 (10/11) or Over 197 (10/11)

Brad Allen
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