8-Deck Baccarat: Winning is as Simple as 1-3-2-6It’s one of those games that can positively drive you up a wall. You can sit around for hours writing down results in an attempt to discern a pattern in the cards, and every time you think you’ve moved ahead an inch, the next card invariably shatters the logic behind your postulating.
Then of course there is the clever blackjack ace that moves on to Baccarat and attempts to use the same card counting techniques he’s mastered at 21. Unfortunately, he watches his blackjack profits slip into the casino’s coffers before sulking off to the bar.
The reason that pattern tracking and card counting don’t work in Baccarat is that each hand is an independent random event, meaning that this time the results are not affected by previous results, and do not affect future results. So, for example, just because the banker has won five times in a row, doesn’t mean that the player is “due” to win the next hand. Our brains are designed to find patterns in anything they can, but don’t let your brain trick you into blowing your bankroll on an illusion.
If you can’t predict the next hand in Baccarat, you are probably wondering how there can be any play strategy at all. The answer lies in appropriate betting systems rather than ‘Beat the House at Baccarat’ systems. A betting system like the 1-3-2-6 system is suitable for Baccarat play, and allows you to risk as little as possible, yet still chance a high return on your bets.
Following the 1-3-2-6 betting system, your profit at the end of four successful bets is ten units. But besides offering substantial reward, the system is also risk averse. If you lose your first bet, you lose one unit. If you win your first bet and lose the second you lose two units, but if you win the second and lose the third, you are still up 2 units. Lose the fourth bet and you break even, but win that bet and you are up 10 units!
Remember, in the long run, the house has an edge of 1.06% if you play banker and 1.24% if you play player. The house edge jumps to 14.36% if you bet tie, so don’t bother. But while mathematically you will fall in line with the statistical average over a very large number of games, you will probably never play enough hands to conform to the statistical loss percentage of 1.06%-1.24%. The reason is that your play will exhibit variance which will skew your overall success in Baccarat from the mathematical expectation. So, in layman’s terms, you still come out smelling like roses even though the odds may be 1.06% against you.