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Mix and match

Marc Elliot continues his Asian Handicaps masterclass by showing how you can combine them with other types of bet in order to lesson your risk and increase value

Despite the English football season running right through the festive period, Christmas time gives serious punters a chance to look at how they have performed during the past year: what sports you are profitable to bet on, what types of bet aren’t performing as well and how to incorporate this into future betting strategy in 2010.

Even if you do nothing to change your betting strategy, it’s amazing what you can do to your P/L just by searching harder for the best price in the market. Sometimes this is the price on the exchanges but after you take your commission on winnings into account, the best prices and the tightest margins are often found on websites such as SBObet, 188bet and Pinnacle Sports.

In the past four articles we’ve looked at the most popular form of betting on these sites: Asian Handicap (AH) betting. In this article, we’ll continue to look at AH bets but we will also discover how they can be used in conjunction with other types of bets to create bespoke bets.

We will do this by looking at matches in the Premier League on the weekend of 30/31 January. All odds and handicaps used are for illustrative purposes.

The biggest match of this weekend, Arsenal versus Manchester United gives us a chance to illustrate the useful qualities of the Draw No Bet (DNB) handicap.

Now let’s say that Arsenal have had a good January transfer window and we think they are good value for the draw here. Although we think the draw is the best bet here, we think that if a team does emerge victorious, it is much more likely to be Arsenal than Man United and we want to place a ‘saver’ bet on Arsenal DNB. Most people make saver bets for the wrong reasons but as long as we believe that Arsenal are a few more percent likely to win the match than Man Utd, then this “saver bet” might be a value bet in its own right.

We place the following bets:

Draw £100 @ 3.45 Betdaq

Arsenal DNB £105 @ 1.95 SBObet(saver bet to win £100 if Arsenal win)

What is great about this scenario is that the saver bet doesn’t cost us any money if the draw occurs because you would receive your stake back on Arsenal DNB bet. What is not great is the fact you would lose both bets if Man United win!

In the match between Liverpool and Bolton on 30 January, we think that Bolton are going to travel to Anfield and park the bus in front of the goal. However, Fernando Torres is in lethal form and we believe that as long as Liverpool are able to find an early goal, this could be a rout. If, on the other hand, Liverpool are unable to find an early breakthrough, we expect the match to go Under 2.5 goals.

Total Goals Spreadbetting Quote: 2.8-2.9

Let’s have a look what would happen at various different score lines if we placed £100 on the Under 2.5 goals using the TG market and bought goals using a spreadbetting firm, buying £100 @ 2.9.

I have assumed that Bolton aren’t going to score more than two goals at Anfield.

Depending on your perception of risk and reward, this can be a useful strategy if you think that the match could be a high-scoring affair. Just to highlight this with an extreme example, if Liverpool were to do to Bolton what Spurs did to Wigan earlier in the season, you would be looking at a profit of £610 when there is never more than £185 at risk.
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